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OH, REALLY?

Spain is set to usurp Germany as the strongman of Europe, due to the increasing competitiveness of its exports, say Morgan Stanley analysts, who think fiscal rebalancing will continue in the country despite its current political turmoil.

No, not really:

But Moorad Choudhry, a professor at Brunel University, disputed Fels's view that high unemployment benefited Spain's economy.

"There is more to productivity and competitive position than unit labor costs. If there wasn't, we could observe Bangladesh's average wage cost of one dollar a day and conclude that it will overtake Germany in the export league table," he said.

He added that Spain's economy has "eight or nine" major weaknesses that must be addressed, on top of export competitiveness.

"The Spanish economy suffers from bottlenecks on the supply side, labor market rigidity, stifling bureaucracy, heavy weight real-estate loan losses still to be recognized on bank balance sheets and an excessive social welfare bill, which is why I would not rush to suggest that Spain is the new Germany."

GIDEON RACHMAN at the Financial Times:

A rare beast has reappeared in Europe. In recent years, there were no confirmed sightings. But in the past few weeks, this shy animal – known as “good news” – has been spotted in various European locations.

Last Friday, the beast even appeared fleetingly in Brussels. For once, an EU summit did not end in acrimony or farce . Instead, European leaders reached an agreement on a budget – and nobody laughed.

Good news also made an appearance on Europe’s battered periphery. Ireland reached a deal that will ease the crushing burden of debt on its public finances. Enda Kenny, the prime minister, was applauded in parliament as he announced a “historic step on the road to economic recovery”. The Financial Times also reported a “brighter outlook” for Greece’s economy. In January, Portugal managed to return to the long-term debt market for the first time since the country was bailed out in 2011.

So is this the beginning of the great European bounceback?

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