Wednesday, March 31, 2010
TODAY'S MUST READ: this piece by Christopher Caldwell on Spain's very serious economic crisis. He does a great, balanced job explaining the situation, the causes, the historical and political context to a foreign audience who may not have followed the issue closely. It's long and worth your time if you want to understand what's happening in Spain. And if you're inclined to dismiss the piece just because it's published in a "neocon rag" or something, you'll be very mistaken.
    
    
SOMETHING ELSE for the "If it was Bush who did this" folder:
    
    WASHINGTON — The Obama administration is proposing to open vast expanses of water along the Atlantic coastline, the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the north coast of Alaska to oil and natural gas drilling, much of it for the first time, officials said Tuesday.
Monday, March 29, 2010
DO YOU THINK that riding a bicycle is better for the environment than driving a car? If you do, think again.
    
    
IF YOU THOUGHT that Obama bowing to the Saudi prince was bad, how about this?

It's as if Silvio thought Muammar was a cardinal, or something...
(via)
    
    The fiercely pro-Israeli Italian Premier Silvio Berlusconi was among the guests at the controversy-filled Arab League summit in Libya with the supposed aim of forming a unified strategy against Tel Aviv's illegal settlement plans in Palestinian territories.
At one point, according to reports, Berlusconi, whose country ruled Libya for over three decades after 1911, stooped to kiss Gaddafi's hand upon arrival at the summit.
It's as if Silvio thought Muammar was a cardinal, or something...
(via)
Saturday, March 27, 2010
ICELAND, the most feminist country? So says The Guardian:
    
    Iceland has passed a law that will result in every strip club in the country being shut down. And forget hiring a topless waitress in an attempt to get around the bar: the law, which was passed with no votes against and only two abstentions, will make it illegal for any business to profit from the nudity of its employees.How is banning women the right to earn their living as they please feminist, exactly? It seems to me that it treating them not as adults, but as children who don't know better.
Even more impressive: the Nordic state is the first country in the world to ban stripping and lapdancing for feminist, rather than religious, reasons.
Friday, March 26, 2010
THE MAÑANA SYNDROME: Spain's government is not doing enough to tackle Spain’s economic problems, writes The Economist.
    
    Tuesday, March 23, 2010
THERE'S several things I don't agree with Ron Paul (particularly his isolationism), but his response to Obamacare's passing is totally spot-on.
    
    Saturday, March 20, 2010
ANOTHER "neutral", "institutional" White House twitter avatar:
As you remember, a few days ago it was this, too... I still think any official administration communication should be above pure advocacy. As opposed to a party or individual, the White House works not just for the guys who agree with it, but also for those who don't. Or at least it should.
Friday, March 19, 2010
Thursday, March 18, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
AM I the only one who find's the White House's Twitter avatar a little inappropriate? Shouldn't it be a bit more, well, institutional?
For some reason I can't upload it for you to see it, so I can't guarantee it'll be the same when you look; I'll keep trying. As a quick description, there's a big number nine under the phrase "We Can't Wait".
UPDATE. Here it is:
UPDATE II. Yes, I know it's about healthcare, and I assumed everybody knew what I was implying. That's precisely the point: the White House using the avatar for policy advocacy, forgetting that the presidency is not just for those supporting its initiatives but also for those against it.
UPDATE III. Welcome, Instapundit readers; make yourselves at home. If you like this post, please consider visiting the homepage, or subscribing to the RSS feed. See you soon!
    
    For some reason I can't upload it for you to see it, so I can't guarantee it'll be the same when you look; I'll keep trying. As a quick description, there's a big number nine under the phrase "We Can't Wait".
UPDATE. Here it is:
UPDATE II. Yes, I know it's about healthcare, and I assumed everybody knew what I was implying. That's precisely the point: the White House using the avatar for policy advocacy, forgetting that the presidency is not just for those supporting its initiatives but also for those against it.
UPDATE III. Welcome, Instapundit readers; make yourselves at home. If you like this post, please consider visiting the homepage, or subscribing to the RSS feed. See you soon!
Monday, March 15, 2010
AND STILL MORE on the alleged problems between American and Spanish troops in Afghanistan: Michael Yon posts a letter by US Army Colonel Robert J. Ulses to Spanish Army Colonel Jesús de Miguel, where he says there's been no problems and that it's a misunderstanding around the procedures to raise concerns. Michael reads between the lines, though.
    
    Saturday, March 13, 2010
THERE'S STILL MORE on the alleged problems between American and Spanish troops in Afghanistan on today's La Vanguardia (see previous post here). According to the Barcelona-based newspaper, the Spanish military attribute the friction to misundertandings at subordinate levels. Oddly, it quotes an unnamed ministry official, which could be either sloppy journalism (if the source wishes to remain anonymous the reporter should say so and the reason why), or that the Defense ministry wants to have it both ways: making it sound as a sort of official response without being a real official response, just in case they need to perform some CYA if the allegations are further proven.
Here's my translation (done in haste, with hardly any proofreading):
"The relationship between Spanish and U.S. troops in Afghanistan are good," Spanish Defense Ministry sources insist. They show documents and letters exchanged between senior commanders of both armies. In a letter dated yesterday, Col. Robert J. Ulses, responsible for U.S. military logistics in Afghanistan [NOTE: I believe this is wrong, since he is Chief of Staff of US troops in Afghanistan -- JMG], told Colonel Jesus de Miguel that the command in the Spanish base in Qala-i-Naw (one of three Spanish posts in Afghanistan) "has adequately addressed requests for help to USFOR-A DET (U.S. forces in Afghanistan) in the western areas of the country.
With these documents, the Defense ministry reacts to a report circulating on the Internet in recent days: according to an email making the rounds among U.S. troops, the Spanish refuse to help U.S. Marines who live or stop at the base. [NOTE: Partial, short selection of a few quotes of the emails omitted here to avoid redundancy -- JMG]
Defense says the real situation is not so. A spokesman gave two examples to La Vanguardia. He said that the Spanish troops in Qala-i-Naw (northwest) responded well to twelve Marines who had called for help after a mission by the river Murghab, the most dangerous area of the Badguis province. "They were offered food and a shower, the same conditions as the Spanish troops," he said. And then he mentioned another example: a Spanish unit worked with an American unit in defusing an IED (improvised explosive device) in Mukuro.
"Every two weeks, he continued, U.S. soldiers camped in the open go to Qala-i-Naw. They eat, shower and rest a few days before returning to his mission."
According to the letter from Colonel Ulses, complaints circulating on the internet "might reflect the lack of understanding between subordinate units at the base. "We will take steps to ensure that in the future all matters are routed through the appropriate channel," he said.
In the past year, U.S. commanders have sent several letters to Spain's Chief of Staff General Jose Julio Rodriguez, thanking him for the support from the Spanish troops. They were signed by General McChrystal, General Petraeus or General McColl. Admiral Stavridis (1 December 2009) welcomed "the continuing commitment (from Spain) with the security and stability in Afghanistan at this critical and historic moment." During a meeting in Washington in July, Defense minister Carme Chacón and Defense secretary Robert Gates, emphasized the "total harmony between the two countries."
Today, Spain has 1,065 troops in Afghanistan, with 511 more joining the mission in the coming weeks.
Thursday, March 11, 2010
THIS IS what happens when you're at a swearing-in ceremony (Chile's Piñera, in this case and there's a 7.2 magnitude earthquake:
(via one of my brothers, who is there and had to evacuate the building where he was in)
THE PROBLEMS for the US troops in the Spanish base in Afghanistan make it to the front page of the World section of La Vanguardia, one of Spain's most respected newspapers (it's not what it used to be in the good old days, but at least it's not as anti-American as the others are). It's a pretty big and visible piece, which is basically an explanation of Michael Yon's post, whom they mention by name.
The article also includes this reaction from Spain's ministry of Defense (I didn't get any response to my request for comment, BTW):
We don't know if the problem is real. For the moment, we won't comment on this matter. In fact, we only have knowledge of an email making the rounds among US servicemen. It's an internal channel to which we have no access. In any case, if the problem exists the US should come out publicly with it and communicate it officially. For the moment no one has filed any complaint. And under these circumstances, we cannot issue a statement".(my translation)
There you go. They say are not aware there is any problem, and that it's all an anonymous email. So it looks like either the commanders on the ground are keeping this from their commands in Madrid, or the ministry in Madrid is lying, or at least playing with words and shielding themselves behind the lack of official complaint from the US (I assume there's been plenty "unofficial" complaint, since I don't think they'd quietly accept this). Of course, the critical point is not whether they comment or not, but whether they're doing anything to solve the situation or not. But still, it would be important to know where in the chain of command this got lost if it did. Or if someone is lying and, in that case, who.

Eva Belén Abad Quijada, Spain, 30 years old
Óscar Abril Alegre, Spain, 19 years old  
Liliana Guillermina Acero Ushiña, Ecuador, 26 years old  
Florencio Aguado Rojano, Spain, 60 years old  
Juan Alberto Alonso Rodríguez, Spain, 38 years old  
María Joséfa Alvarez González, Spain, 48 years old  
Juan Carlos Del Amo Aguado, Spain, 28 years old  
Andriyan Asenov Andrianov, Bulgaria, 22 years old  
María Nuria Aparicio Somolinos, Spain, 40 years old  
Alberto Arenas Barroso, Spain, 24 years old  
Neil Hebe Astocondor Masgo, Peru, 34 years old  
Ana Isabel Avila Jiménez, Spain, 43 years old  
Miguel Ángel Badajoz Cano, Spain, 34 years old  
Susana Ballesteros Ibarra, Spain, 42 years old  
Francisco Javier Barahona Imedio, Spain, 34 years old  
Gonzalo Barajas Díaz, Spain, 32 years old  
Gloria Inés Bedoya, Colombia, 40 years old  
Sanaa Ben Salah Imadaquan, Spain, 13 years old  
Esteban Martín De Benito Caboblanco, Spain, 39 years old  
Rodolfo Benito Samaniego, Spain, 27 years old  
Anka Valeria Bodea, Romania, 26 years old  
Livia Bogdan, Romania, 27 years old  
Florencio Brasero Murga, Spain, 50 years old  
Trinidad Bravo Segovia, Spain, 40 years old  
Alina Maria Bryk, Poland, 39 years old  
Stefan Budai, Romania, 37 years old  
Tibor Budi, Romania, 37 years old  
María Pilar Cabrejas Burillo, Spain, 37 years old  
Rodrigo Cabrero Pérez, Spain, 20 years old  
Milagros Calvo García, Spain, 39 years old  
Sonia Cano Campos, Spain, 24 years old  
Alicia Cano Martínez, Spain, 63 years old  
José María Carrilero Baeza, Spain, 39 years old  
Álvaro Carrion Franco, Spain, 17 years old  
Francisco Javier Casas Torresano, Spain, 28 years old  
Cipriano Castillo Muñoz, Spain, 55 years old  
María Inmaculada Castillo Sevillano, Spain, 39 years old  
Sara Centenera Montalvo, Spain, 19 years old  
Oswaldo Manuel Cisneros Villacís, Ecuador, 34 years old  
Eugenia María Ciudad-Real Díaz, Spain, 26 years old  
Jacqueline Contreras Ortiz, Peru, 22 years old  
María Soledad Contreras Sánchez, Spain, 51 years old  
María Paz Criado Pleiter, Spain, 52 years old  
Nicoleta Diac, Romania, 27 years old  
Beatriz Díaz Hernandez, Spain, 30 years old  
Georgeta Gabriela Dima, Romania, 35 years old  
Tinka Dimitrova Paunova, Bulgaria, 31 years old  
Kalina Dimitrova Vasileva, Bulgaria, 31 years old  
Sam Djoco, Senegal, 42 years old  
María Dolores Durán Santiago, Spain, 34 years old  
Osama El Amrati, Morocco, 23 years old  
Sara Encinas Soriano, Spain, 26 years old  
Carlos Marino Fernández Dávila, Peru, 39 years old  
María Fernández del Amo, Spain, 25 years old  
Rex Ferrer Reynado, Phillipines, 20 years old  
Héctor Manuel Figueroa Bravo, Chile, 33 years old  
Julia Frutos Rosique, Spain, 44 years old  
María Dolores Fuentes Fernández, Spain, 29 years old  
José Gallardo Olmo, Spain, 33 years old  
José Raúl Gallego Triguero, Spain, 39 years old  
María Pilar Gamiz Torres, Spain, 40 years old  
Abel García Alfageme, Spain, 27 years old  
Juan Luis García Arnaiz, Spain, 17 years old  
Beatriz García Fernández, Spain, 27 years old  
María de las Nieves García García-Moñino, Spain, 46 years old  
Enrique García González, Dominican Republic, 28 years old  
Cristina Aurelia García Martínez, Spain, 34 years old  
Carlos Alberto García Presa, Spain, 24 years old  
José García Sánchez, Spain, 45 years old  
José María García Sánchez, Spain, 47 years old  
Javier Garrote Plaza, Spain, 26 years old  
Petrica Geneva, Romania, 34 years old  
Ana Isabel Gil Pérez, Spain, 29 years old  
Óscar Gómez Gudiña, Spain, 24 years old  
Felix González Gago, Spain, 52 years old  
Ángelica González García, Spain, 19 years old  
Teresa González Grande, Spain, 38 years old  
Elías González Roque, Spain, 30 years old  
Juan Miguel Gracia García, Spain, 53 years old  
Javier Guerrero Cabrera, Spain, 25 years old  
Berta María Gutiérrez García, Spain, 39 years old  
Sergio de las Heras Correa, Spain, 29 years old  
Pedro Hermida Martín, Spain, 51 years old  
Alejandra Iglesias López, Spain, 28 years old  
Mohamed Itaiben, Morocco, 27 years old  
Pablo Izquierdo Asanza, Spain, 42 years old  
María Teresa Jaro Narrillos, Spain, 32 years old  
Oleksandr Kladkovoy, Ukraine, 56 years old  
Laura Isabel Laforga Bajón, Spain, 28 years old  
María Victoria León Moyano, Spain, 30 years old  
María Carmen Lominchar Alonso, Spain, 34 years old  
Myriam López Díaz, Spain, 31 years old  
María Carmen López Pardo, Spain, 50 years old  
María Cristina López Ramos, Spain, 38 years old  
José María López-Menchero Moraga, Spain, 44 years old  
Miguel de Luna Ocaña, Spain, 36 years old  
María Jesús Macías Rodríguez, Spain, 30 years old  
Francisco Javier Mancebo Záforas, Spain, 38 years old  
Ángel Manzano Pérez, Ecuador, 42 years old  
Vicente Marín Chiva, Spain, 37 years old  
Antonio Marín Mora, Spain, 43 years old  
Begoña Martín Baeza, Spain, 25 years old  
Ana Martín Fernández, Spain, 43 years old  
Luis Andrés Martín Pacheco, Spain, 54 years old  
María Pilar Martín Rejas, Spain, 50 years old  
Alois Martinas, Romania, 27 years old  
Carmen Mónica Martínez Rodríguez, Spain, 31 years old  
Míriam Melguizo Martínez, Spain, 28 years old  
Javier Mengíbar Jiménez, Spain, 43 years old  
Álvaro de Miguel Jiménez, Spain, 26 years old  
Michael Mitchell Rodríguez, Cuba, 28 years old  
Stefan Modol, Romania, 45 years old  
Segundo Víctor Mopocita Mopocita, Ecuador, 37 years old  
Encarnación Mora Donoso, Spain, 64 years old  
María Teresa Mora Valero, Spain, 37 years old  
Julita Moral García, Spain, 53 years old  
Francisco Moreno Aragonés, Spain, 56 years old  
José Ramón Moreno Isarch, Spain, 37 years old  
Eugenio Moreno Santiago, Spain, 56 years old  
Juan Pablo Moris Crespo, Spain, 32 years old  
Juan Muñoz Lara, Spain, 33 years old  
Francisco José Narváez de la Rosa, Spain, 28 years old  
Mariana Negru, Romania, 40 years old  
Ismael Nogales Guerrero, Spain, 31 years old  
Inés Novellón Martínez, Spain, 30 years old  
Miguel Ángel Orgaz Orgaz, Spain, 34 years old  
Ángel Pardillos Checa, Spain, 62 years old  
Sonia Parrondo Antón, Spain, 28 years old  
Juan Francisco Pastor Férez, Spain, 51 years old  
Daniel Paz Manjón, Spain, 20 years old  
Josefa Pedraza Pino, Spain, 41 years old  
Miryam Pedraza Rivero, Spain, 25 years old  
Roberto Pellicari Lopezosa, Spain, 31 years old  
María del Pilar Pérez Mateo, Spain, 28 years old  
Felipe Pinel Alonso, Spain, 51 years old  
Martha Scarlett Plasencia Hernandez, Dominican Republic, 27 years old  
Elena Ples, Romania, 33 years old  
María Luisa Polo Remartinez, Spain, 50 years old  
Ionut Popa, Romania, 23 years old  
Emilian Popescu, Romania, 44 years old  
Miguel Ángel Prieto Humanes, Spain, 37 years old  
Francisco Antonio Quesada Bueno, Spain, 44 years old  
John Jairo Ramírez Bedoya, Colombia, 37 years old  
Laura Ramos Lozano, Honduras, 37 years old  
Miguel Reyes Mateos, Spain, 37 years old  
Marta del Río Menéndez, Spain, 40 years old  
Nuria del Río Menéndez, Spain, 38 years old  
Jorge Rodríguez Casanova, Spain, 22 years old  
Luis Rodríguez Castell, Spain, 40 years old  
María de la Soledad Rodríguez de la Torre, Spain, 42 years old  
Ángel Luis Rodríguez Rodríguez, Spain, 34 years old  
Francisco Javier Rodríguez Sánchez, Spain, 52 years old  
Ambrosio Rogado Escribano, Spain, 56 years old  
Cristina Romero Sánchez, Spain, 34 years old  
Patricia Rzaca, Poland, 7 meses  
Wieslaw Rzaca, Poland, 34 years old  
Antonio Sabalete Sánchez, Spain, 36 years old  
Sergio Sánchez López, Spain, 17 years old  
María Isabel Sánchez Mamajón, Spain, 37 years old  
Juan Antonio Sánchez Quispe, Peru, 45 years old  
Balbina Sánchez-Dehesa France, Spain, 47 years old  
David Santamaría García, Spain, 23 years old  
Sergio dos Santos Silva, Brazil, 28 years old  
Juan Carlos Sanz Morales, Spain, 33 years old  
Eduardo Sanz Pérez, Spain, 31 years old  
Guillermo Senent Pallarola, Spain, 23 years old  
Miguel Antonio Serrano Lastra, Spain, 28 years old  
Rafael Serrano López, Spain, 66 years old  
Paula Mihaela Sfeatcu, Romania, 27 years old  
Federico Miguel Sierra Serón, Spain, 37 years old  
Domnino Simón González, Spain, 45 years old  
María Susana Soler Iniesta, Spain, 46 years old  
Carlos Soto Arranz, Spain, 34 years old 
Mariya Ivanova Staykova, Bulgaria, 38 years old  
Marion Cintia Subervielle, France, 30 years old  
Alexandru Horatiu Suciu, Romania, 18 years old  
Danuta Teresa Szpila, Poland, 28 years old  
José Luis Tenesaca Betancourt, Ecuador, 17 years old  
Iris Toribio Pascual, Spain, 20 years old  
Neil Torres Mendoza, Ecuador, 38 years old  
Carlos Tortosa García, Spain, 31 years old  
María Teresa Tudanca Hernández, Spain, 49 years old  
Jesús Utrilla Escribano, Spain, 44 years old  
José Miguel Valderrama López, Spain, 25 years old  
Saúl Valdez Ruiz, Honduras, 44 years old  
Mercedes Vega Mingo, Spain, 45 years old  
David Vilela Fernández, Spain, 23 years old  
Juan Ramón Zamora Gutiérrez, Spain, 29 years old  
Yaroslav Zojniuk, Ukraine, 48 years old 
Csaba Olimpiu Zsigovski, Romania, 26 years old  Wednesday, March 10, 2010
TIME TO END Spain's labor market apartheid: "Take a look at a crowded street in any Spanish city and you will see two classes of workers. You won’t be able to distinguish them by their clothes, their skin colour or their schooling. But when they show up for work, receive their payslips at the end of the month or think about their future, they are very different." It's a good summary of one of the reasons, the main one, why the unemployment has skyrocketed.
    
    Tuesday, March 09, 2010
NEGLIGENCE, HARRASMENT: an email sent to Michael Yon details the trouble that US troops are allegedly experiencing at a Spanish base in Afghanistan. Read it all. I have asked Spain's Ministry of Defense if they want to comment on this; will update if I hear from them. 
    
    BARCELONA WEATHER UPDATE: turns out that it wasn't Al Gore but Baghdad Bob who was in Barcelona yesterday... Anyway, it did get worse yesterday, with thousands of people still without power in northern Catalonia and scores of schools closed. Today's a sunny, but very chilly day.
Monday, March 08, 2010
AL GORE must be in town, because it's snowing heavily in Barcelona, something that doesn't happen often, especially in mid-March. Take a look at the view from my apartment (click to enlarge):
And it keeps on, so it's going to get much, much whiter soon...
UPDATE. Here's a live webcam, less than a mile from my place.
ANOTHER harsh piece at the WSJ on Spain's dire economic situation:
    
    Before waxing ecstatic over Greece's ability to flog some bonds, remember this: Greece is a sideshow. Spain is the main event.Read the rest.
Its economy, the euro zone's fourth largest, is five times the size of Greece's, and almost twice the size of those of other financially struggling countries — Greece, Ireland and Portugal — combined.
So it matters that Spain's socialist prime minister, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, seems to be an admirer of Charles Dickens's Mr. Micawber. Ask him what he plans to do about his country's 11.4% fiscal deficit, and he first promises to extend his country's retirement age, and then says he won't. He promises a public-sector wage freeze, but his Finance Minister, Elena Salgado, says he really doesn't mean it. But somehow he will cut the deficit to 3% by 2013. "We have a plan," says Spain's deputy prime minister, Maria Teresa Fernandez de la Vega. To most observers, that plan seems to be Mr. Micawber's: "something will turn up."
Saturday, March 06, 2010
THE MICROSOFT COURIER, the digital journal / tablet / ebook reader that will be launched later this year, looks pretty cool...
(via)
Friday, March 05, 2010
ARE SPAIN'S BANKS SAFE? Maybe not as much as it's often told:
    
    Spain's property woes and economic downturn finally may be catching up with the country's two largest banks, Banco Santander SA and Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA.
The big banks have remained profitable throughout the financial crisis despite the bursting of the housing bubble in Spain, high unemployment and other problems. One reason: the government's strict requirements for Spanish banks to maintain high reserves against bad loans, in part a response to a previous property downturn in the 1990s.
But now there is concern whether these cushions can withstand the impact of an increase in nonperforming loans. As these mandatory reserves wane, the banks' profits could be hit by the same economic and real-estate-related losses that have dogged banks in the U.S. and Europe.
"Having outperformed the sector during the credit crisis … recent results cast doubt over the adequacy of generic reserves to absorb future losses," said Barclays Capital analyst Tom Rayner in a recent note. Barclays ranks the banks "underweight."
Both Santander and BBVA maintain that their provisions are adequate and in compliance with the central bank's rules.
At the same time, some analysts have raised questions about whether the Spanish banking sector in general is underreporting problem loans, by agreeing to loan modifications that help borrowers make payments before the loan is officially categorized as delinquent. Recent data from Spain's National Statistics Institute show a 55% rise in mortgage "novations," or changes to the terms of a mortgage, to 435,835 in 2009, for the sector.
Thursday, March 04, 2010
Tuesday, March 02, 2010
QUOTE OF THE DAY: "We can, and should, ease the pain of those who lose jobs. But the government can't find you a job any more than it can find you a spouse or a hobby. The process of matching individuals to employers can only be done by individuals."
    
    
GOOD FOR HIM: "A prominent Islamic scholar will use a speech in London to issue a 600-page religious edict, denouncing terrorists and suicide bombers as 'unbelievers'."
    
    Monday, March 01, 2010
ALAS, some things never seem to change:
    
    Israel lodged a formal complaint with Spain on Sunday, charging certain individuals in Spanish schools of promoting anti-Semitic and anti-Israel ideas among young children. The letter comes after Israel's ambassador to Spain, Rafi Shotz, recently received dozens of anti-Semitic postcards from Spanish elementary school students.
The postcards bore statements including "Jews kill for money," "Leave the country to the Palestinians" and "Go somewhere where they will accept you." A Foreign Ministry official said the handwriting appears typical of children six to nine years old.
THE FINANCIAL TIMES on Spain's economy and the ability of Zapatero to do what needs to be done:
    
    Spain, at four times the size of Greece in terms of its economy, is by far the largest of the budgetary laggards that will be facing renewed scrutiny, and probably higher financing costs, in the sovereign debt markets.You don't say.
The crucial issue for Spain and its European neighbours is the credibility of its “stability plan”, which outlines sharp cuts in government spending, including a near-freeze on hiring civil servants, and aims to reduce the deficit from 11.4 per cent of gross domestic product last year to 3 per cent of GDP in 2013.
Although it will have no short-term impact, Madrid has also proposed increasing the retirement age to 67 from 65 to secure the financial health of the pensions system.
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, prime minister, faces an uncomfortable spring, for very few economists, analysts or foreign investors are convinced either that the plans are plausible or that the government has the will or ability to implement them.
“It is all air,” said Luis Garicano, professor of economics and strategy at the London School of Economics, “just ideas that for the most part the government cannot put in place by itself, particularly on pensions or public employees.”
Nomura said it was “not convinced” that the austerity plan could be implemented. Standard & Poor’s, the rating agency, predicted that the budget deficit would stay above 5 per cent of GDP until 2013, well above the eurozone’s widely abused 3 per cent limit.
Critics of the austerity plan, which has been sent to Brussels for approval, point to three main obstacles. First, its economic forecasts are over-optimistic. Second, central government has direct control over only about a quarter of expenditure, with the rest disbursed by autonomous regional governments and the social security system. Third, the Socialists lack the necessary will.
When they talk to foreigners, Spanish ministers say they are determined to do whatever it takes to restore order to their public finances. But when they address their supporters at home, they emphasise plans to maintain social spending.
The result is confusion and disarray.









